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Investing Newsletter - July 2024

  • Cycles of US stock outperformance and underperformance vs. International stocks are normal.

  • The international equity outperformance from. 2000 to 2009 was especially painful for US investors because US stocks averaged negative returns for 10 years - now known as “The Lost Decade.”

  • Valuation measures such as price-to-earnings ratios lead some to believe that International stocks may outperform US stocks over the coming yearsmay outperform US stocks over the coming yearsmay outperform US stocks over the coming years

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Investing Newsletter - January 2024
  • In only six out of 97 years from 1926 to 2022 did the market have an annual return that came within two percentage points of the market’s long-term average returns of 10%.

  • It’s extremely important for investors to understand market volatility so they do not get too excited about a “good year” and too worried by a “bad year”.

  • The allure of trying to be in the market when it’s rising - and out of the market when its falling - is completely understandable. But timing decisions can often result in lower returns and increased stress.

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Market Review Q4 - 2023
  • The US equity market posted positive returns for the quarter and outperformed both non-US developed and emerging markets.

  • US real estate investment trusts outperformed non-US REITs during the quarter.

  • US government debt reached 121% of the value of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) last year. Many investors have expressed concern over the impact that servicing this level of debt could have on the stock market. But the historical data show little relation between the two.

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Investing Newsletter - July 2023
  • In the past century, there have been 15 recessions in the US. In 11 of those instances, stock returns were positive two years after the recession began.

  • Stock markets typically drop well before a recession is officially announced and then rebound before the recession is officially over.

  • Commit to holding onto your portfolio’s stock allocation for the long term and rebalancing it if markets drop due to a recession or any other event that may trigger a bear market

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Investing Newsletter - July 2022
  • “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

  • Make sure you have enough cash and other conservative investments so you will never have to sell stocks in a bear market even a prolonged bear market.

  • Expect stock markets to fall further after you rebalance, in other words mentally prepare for this so you will not be overly bothered by it.

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Market Review - Q2 2022
  • US mortgage rates hit 5% for first time since 2011.

  • The US equity market posted negative returns for the quarter and underperformed both non-US developed and emerging markets.

  • The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return returned -5.66% for the second quarter of 2022.

  • While volatile periods like the one we’re experiencing now can be intense, investors who learn to embrace uncertainty may often triumph in the long run.

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Investing Newsletter - Jan 2022
  • Vanguard’s 10-year forecast for U.S. equity returns is 2.3% to 4.3% per year; and for global equities it’s higher at 5.2% to 7.2% per year.

  • Market corrections are a good time to rebalance your portfolio and add back to stock holdings.

  • History shows that reaching a new market high doesn’t mean the market will then retreat.

  • It is wise to have a plan in place for the possibility of reduced future investment returns.

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